9 stories tagged forecasting, newest first.
185 points by jimauthors | 100 comments
Blog post arguing that LLM-generated confidence scores are uncalibrated text continuations, and describing how to build a calibrated confidence rule from recorded outcomes instead.
57 points by YeGoblynQueenne | 148 comments
A Science magazine Books et al. reflection revisiting a 1960 Science paper that predicted a population singularity in 2026, noting the forecast was far off.
557 points by groar | 104 comments
Mistral AI blog post announcing Timestral, a family of time-series foundation models.
56 points by adam | 33 comments
A Cultivate Labs blog post applying CIA-style analysis and forecasting to college football; the page returned a Heroku application error.
10 points by pansuriyakartik | 4 comments
A blog post arguing that well-calibrated fast intuitive (System One) models matter more than raw accuracy for decision-making, framed around a concept called Jev.
804 points by jatins | 905 comments
Dan Luu essay evaluating the accuracy of AI skeptic Ed Zitron's predictions, starting with his 2024 claim that Meta, Google, and Microsoft are dying.
396 points by todsacerdoti | 330 comments
Blog post on Entropic Thoughts estimating the probability of an Nvidia stock crash, prompted by a question in the 2026 ACX prediction contest.
319 points by apwheele | 131 comments
Blog post by Andrew P. Wheeler arguing that forecasts, such as Richard Rosenfeld's national crime rate forecasts in The Criminologist, should include error bars.
373 points by PaulHoule | 114 comments
arXiv paper introducing TimeGPT, a foundation model for time series forecasting that performs zero-shot predictions on unseen datasets.