Monte-Carlo Simulations(eli.thegreenplace.net)
154 points by ibobev | 35 comments
Eli Bendersky blog post explaining Monte Carlo simulations with examples like estimating pi by throwing darts, using Rust and Python.
#probability on Hacker News
12 stories tagged probability, newest first.
Jev Can't Be Calibrated(alexmolas.com)
26 points by alexmolas | 38 comments
A blog post by Alex Molas arguing that "Jev" cannot be calibrated, likely discussing probabilistic calibration of a model or metric.
Missile defense is NP-complete(smu160.github.io)
353 points by O3marchnative | 367 comments
Blog post arguing that allocating missile interceptors is an NP-complete resource allocation problem, starting with single-shot kill probability of interceptors.
Cosmologically Unique IDs(jasonfantl.com)
443 points by jfantl | 140 comments
A blog post by Jason Fantl exploring how to generate IDs that would remain unique across the entire universe, from UUIDs to cosmological scales.
“Are you the one?” is free money(blog.owenlacey.dev)
451 points by samwho | 105 comments
A blog post analyzing the dating reality show "Are You the One?" mathematically, arguing contestants could reliably find all matches and win the prize money.
Markov chains are the original language models(elijahpotter.dev)
427 points by chilipepperhott | 154 comments
A blog post by Elijah Potter explaining Markov chains as early language models and how they generate text.
Finding Shawn Mendes (2019)(ericneyman.wordpress.com)
362 points by jzwinck | 53 comments
Eric Neyman's 2019 blog post "Finding Shawn Mendes" on his math and puzzles blog Unexpected Values, filed under "100% Serious."
Reservoir Sampling(samwho.dev)
475 points by chrisdemarco | 88 comments
An interactive essay by Sam Rose explaining reservoir sampling, a technique for selecting a fair random sample from a set of unknown size.
Introduction to Stochastic Calculus(jiha-kim.github.io)
414 points by ibobev | 69 comments
A blog post by Ji-Ha Kim giving a beginner-friendly, intuition-focused introduction to stochastic calculus using calculus-based derivations.
Kelly Can't Fail(win-vector.com)
386 points by jmount | 118 comments
A Win Vector blog post by John Mount explaining the Kelly bet allocation strategy and a setting in which Kelly betting cannot fail.
Fair coins tend to land on the side they started (2023)(researchgate.net)
380 points by seanhunter | 179 comments
ResearchGate listing for a 2023 paper reporting evidence from 350,757 coin flips that fair coins tend to land on the same side they started.
Fair coins tend to land on the same side they started(arxiv.org)
325 points by fbartos | 220 comments
arXiv paper reporting 350,757 coin flips showing fair coins land on the same side they started slightly more often than chance.